Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates cover identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has something to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
